Sunday December 6 2009:-
The UN Conference on Climate Change has begun! "110 heads of states and governments will ... attempt to seal a political global climate deal. If a deal is agreed, the UN will aim at transforming it into a legally binding text to replace the Kyoto Protocol as its regulations of emissions expires in 2012."
Monday December 7 2009:-
Oops; well, following the leaking of the white paper which appears to pre-empt the issue of emissions levels for developing countries, it is going to take something equally catastrophic to refocus the gathering on climate change and away from the bullying of developing countries by the "first world". If only the Antarctic ice shelf would collapse right now...
Tuesday December 8 2009:-
Copenhagen is now a five ring circus: (Ring 1) Having requested a collapse of the Antarctic ice shelf yesterday this is exactly what happened: an enormous iceberg is heading for Australia. (Ring 2) Sarah Palin has become aware of the "Hopenhagen" conference and has deftly pointed out that fiddling with emissions levels is an "economic catastrophe" (she's obviously unaware that CO2 is now officially "harmful to the public" in the USA). (Ring 3) The leaking of Denmark's pro-large economy white paper has now enabled Tuvalu to propose an alternative which is for some reason supported by the G77 but which remains disadvantageous to them. (Ring 4) The 'leaked' paper has been revised and now expressly supports Kyoto with a 12 month deadline for a replacement (i.e. do nothing). (Ring 5) In the meantime scientists at the conference have felt the need to issue joint statements with inter-faith groups reassuring the evangelical right wing that climate change is not fiddlin' with Gawd's Wrath. Hallelujah
Wednesday December 9 2009:-
Today’s daily roundup seemed uneventful. Perhaps people took a long lunch after the break to watch warrior Obama spend a few tons of emissions to accept the Peace Prize. But while the NGOs watched Princess Mary narrate a sustainable fashion parade and/or stripped to their underwear (presumably to show how warm it has become) the bosses had a few quiet words to the press. Ban Ki - moon made it clear that he expected a consensual outcome (i.e. he’d had enough of these leaks and would be banging heads) and Yvo de Boer (executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in case you didn’t know) said all he wanted was agreement on: (1) how much developed countries would reduce emissions, (2) how much developing countries would limit development, (3) who is going to pay for it all and (4) how the money was going to be managed. At least they might as well reduce the scope before the heads of government arrive next week.
Thursday December 10 2009:-
OK, so now we have an official draft agreement courtesy of the UN climate bureaucrats which would cut emissions by 50% by 2050 but don’t get excited because (a) it is one of those documents like a D.I.Y. divorce paper where it all depends on what is put in the gaps by all parties concerned; (b) at present those parties do not include the USA, China or India so it’s like children trying to get their parents divorced against their will (c) the chief G77 negotiator walked out of the meetings saying “things are not going well.” So much for that. The good news is that after the po-faced UN head of climate change Yvo de Boer said that any Copenhagen agreement has to be all about money, the European union hob nobbed and quickly came up with 30b Euros over two years (this is a third of the total estimated requirement) as if they had already thought it through. On the other hand, the African Union negotiator (Meles Zenawi) folded his arms and said the outcome of the entire conference depends on what the major economies pay for and the Americans and the Chinese said they aren’t paying for anything and engaged in an hilarious “I know you are so what am I?” exchange about each other. One wonders what Sarah Palin is so worried about. As Hopenhagen turns to Hopenhell her bit will be biting into Greenland’s sub-tropical tundra in no time at all. Maybe this is what the Danes wanted all along. They’re so clever.
Friday December 11 2009:-
Today’s summary was accidentally deleted!
Saturday December 12 2009:-
With the unofficial (non combatant) delegates and eco-tourists working themselves into a frenzy on the cobblestones of Copenhagen this weekend Connie Hedegaard, the Conference President called a press conference to state that “we have made considerable progress over the course of the first week” which in context is one of those comments like “you do not look fat.” The press corps (not being sure what this meant) probed and were informed that the progress to which she referred concerned previously unnoticed discussions on wind and solar power and the expansion of forests, but Madame President clearly avoided claiming progress on the subject of who is going to pay for caps on emissions. The gap-filled circulating white paper keeps circulating but the African Union is doing its bit to define the issues. They want the industrialised nations to pay 5% of GDP. This would require the USA to come up with $780 billion over two years (compared to the EU’s 33b Euros), so as the African Union said yesterday, “things are not going well.” Obama, having gone home from Norway to refuel his enormous plane, flies back to Denmark next week with many of his co-heads of government. They must be wondering what they are going to do when they get there. Say yes to 5% of GDP? Say no? Suggest another draft text? Their way will have been prepared by no less than the Archbishop of Canterbury (no stranger to schism) who will preach tomorrow to Queen Margarethe and her family on the topic of loving the environment. Maybe divine enlightenment will ensue. Maybe it won’t. As delegates are no doubt united in anticipation of the conference’s end, it’s beginning to hardly matter.
Sunday December 13 2009:-
Despite the Conference’s day of rest today 200 unofficial conference delegates sang their eco-protest-songs in the Scandinavian slammer while the official delegates brewed enough trouble to keep them going for the rest of the week. The Archbishop of Canterbury said in church this morning that the conference outcomes were being put at risk by "fear and selfishness," and you don't need to be a Ugandan Bishop to realise he probably got that right. The ubiquitous Meles Zenawi (leader of the African delegations), who has cast a spell of doom on the conference’s outcome every day since it began, proved his consistency by announcing today that he would sink any agreement if it did not sufficiently account for African financial needs (remember they want a mere 5% of GDP), and then revealed that he had China and India on side to give his threat meaning. In the meantime the draft text fiasco continued when the original (mostly white) G8 countries went off to further negotiations at a secret dinner to which no-one else (i.e. China, India, Mexico, Brazil or South Africa) was invited, thereby adding insult to injury. An optimist might say they were trying to exert pressure on the USA to show some leadership, but if so they failed. Back at the ranch, Conference President Connie Hedegard (who said yesterday that great progress had been made without iterating any examples) said not enough progress had been made and that everyone had to hurry up. Actually, quite a few people said this including Tony Blair (but it’s not clear why he said it or two whom; it’s possible that he’s giving press conferences to himself). Almost everyone who spoke to a reporter today revelled in the fact that there’s no text for the heads for government to sign when they arrive this week but no one knows what to do about it. In any case Connie can’t hurry up anything. What with secret dinners for the rich, and threats by the poor to tear up an agreement that doesn’t even exist, while the developing giants of India and China make mischief in the peanut gallery, it’s fairly safe to say by now that China, India and the African states came to Copenhagen with about as much good faith as the USA, and that is saying something.
Monday December 14 2009:-
Gordon Brown decided that he would arrive before all the other heads of government so as to prove himself in Copenhagen the leader he has signally failed to be at home. Or so he thought a few months ago when his program was arranged. Now he’s simply going to be first on the scene of the Climate Change train wreck. Not being renowned for his “people skills,” it’s unlikely that his presence is going to be an effective triage. “Train wreck” is no empty metaphor; this is precisely how the conference was described by no less than Jairam Ramesh, India’s Minister for the Environment who helpfully pointed out that only two days remain before a text is needed for the HOGs to sign, and that no convergence of views is in sight. Ed Miliband (the UK Climate Minister and younger brother of Foreign Secretary and Hilary Clinton’s love interest, David Miliband) was equally blunt and told conference delegates to “get your act together.” The rest of Monday slumped into a miasma of sulks about Saturday night’s secret dinner to which no one was invited but those whom the Danes believed to be worth cultivating (i.e. none of the developing or poor countries). Five whole hours of negotiating time were lost on account of this invitation list. In these circumstances Vice President Al Gore’s charismatic and crowd pleasing appearance could not fulfil its function as a curtain raiser to a freshly drafted global agreement. By now a draft agreement should have been almost ready for Gordon Brown to pass off as his own work. Instead, Gore’s irrefutable evidence of global warming simply highlighted the absence of a draft text and showed how little notice has been taken by governments of the fundamental point of this conference: that it is time for global regulations to effect climate change.
Tuesday December 15 2009:-
The second phase of the conference began today with the arrival of the first of what will become a torrent of celebrities seeking to “expand the brand” by aligning themselves with what they thought was going to be a successful example of populist political change. Instead, “Hopenhagen” has turned out to be an humiliating spectacle of bitter public enmity unseen since the spoils were divided at the end of both World Wars. Gordon Brown arrived as promised, huffing and puffing, and has not been seen since, presumably because he’s too terrified to come out of his hotel room and face the Africans. Prince Charles arrived as well (separate plane) and gave the keynote address to the second phase of the talks in which he steered clear of schism and pronounced all delegates “profoundly weary.” Schism claimed Al Gore when his own research scientist contradicted everything Gore said in his speech yesterday (there must be something in the water). Arnold Schwazenegger (not an obvious candidate for emissions martyr) urged delegates to “effect a global transformation,” a phrase which really has to be heard in his unique version of English, and Nick Griffin, leader of the British Fascists, made a quaint and rather touching misjudgement when he denounced the conference as a meeting of “mass murderers.” He believes emissions issues are the product of a vast left wing conspiracy, but if he was assuming that those he was accusing of murder were trying to do something to prevent global warming he cannot have read the papers last week and seen how they were in effect doing exactly the opposite. It isn’t easy for a neo - Fascist to find that he really is expressing the opinion of the silent majority. It makes them feel a little too conspicuous. But as it was, the loony Right Wing has paved the way for the next three days when the world’s leaders will arrive to find that there is nothing for them to do but state the obvious (like Prince Charles), claim to be rescuing victory from the jaws of defeat (like Gordon Brown), make wild and crazy statements (like Nick Griffin) and undergo long photo ops with the clueless celebrities who thought that they could ride the climate gravy train without the entire world observing the carbon guzzling engines which are pulling it.
Wednesday December 16 2009:-
When Connie Hedegaard resigned as conference president today and was replaced by the Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen no one seemed to notice, so irrelevant has leadership and process management become in the melange of self interest playing out its rage against climate change in Copenhagen. Apart from the Danish police who have succeeded in acquiring an unexpected reputation for brutality, no one achieved anything inside the conference venue, where observer delegates were shut out of the venue after the talks broke down completely for the second time in 72 hours and the third time since the talks began. It seems that negotiators could not negotiate until they had defined what it was they were supposed to discuss given the extent of their conflict and the absence of any text which could form the basis of an agreement. Gordon Brown abdicated as global patriarch more or less as soon as he had crowned himself and said the conference was heading for “deadlock.” David Miliband (Ed’s big brother) said it was heading for farce, as if it hasn’t been a farce for days already, and Yvo de Boer, the UN head of climate change, compared it to a cable car stalled over a ravine. But, he said, the ride would be faster when the car began to move again (quite right: gravity can be compelling when you move away from the edge of a ravine). Ban-ki Moon has distanced himself from the conference and kept a low profile since last Friday when he warned delegates to stop wasting time and get on with a draft agreement. So it’s more a relief than a shock to hear that delegates today are openly discussing reconvening in Mexico next summer. No one is even suggesting any more that there will be any significant outcome on Friday. Obama might as well stay at home.
Thursday December 16 2009:-
We all knew that when the top brass arrived in Copenhagen they were going to have to save face, tread water or whatever seeing as there is no agreement to talk about, or more specifically nothing written down in five pages or less for them to sign. So President Sarkozy et al have done the expected and whacked those feckless delegates over the head and told them they have failed to fulfill their historic destiny by bickering and being uncooperative. But something a bit odder is going on. It began yesterday when John Kerry in his usual electrifying manner stated that the US would pass significant CO2 legislation only if the conference would agree on what that legislation ought to say. Well, this was strange considering that the USA has shown no interest in meaningful C02 legislation, or what the nonexistent draft text ought to say, or in showing leadership at the conference itself. And in any case the last thing a senator from Massachusetts is going to be able to do is predict what congress will do, at any time in the future, and the very, very last thing the US Congress will do is follow the recommendation of a gang of foreigners. Kyoto made that point quite clearly. So Kerry was being specious, as usual; but it is impossible to find words to describe Secretary of State Hilary Clinton who arrived today and told the conference the USA would provide $100b per year by 2020. Well, this is a lot. It's almost (but not quite) enough to make the Africans overlook the Egg Foo Yong they missed out on last Saturday night when the sacked conference president left them off her dinner invitation list. But hang on; there's a catch. This money would be provided (courtesy of the Bank of China one assumes), ONLY IF the conference agreed on an acceptable draft text within 24 hours. Call me old fashioned, but isn’t this a bit of an obvious abrogation of responsibility? If there is anything going on at the conference it is a massive leadership vacuum into which pour 200 of the world’s, um, leaders. And what do they say? “I cannot lead in a leadership vacuum. You lot can’t make the decisions but I can, and because you can’t, I won’t.” It’s very strange indeed. Has anyone thought about leading by example? Or making a commitment that is not contingent on a flock of pigs flying to hell at the precise moment that it freezes over.
Friday December 19 2009:-
At midnight on Friday (Denmark time) the USA, China, South Africa and India agreed to an “accord” which sets 2 degrees C as an average temperature increase, proposes a review in 2016, contributes $USD 30b to developing countries for 2010-2012 and promises $USD100b a year by 2020 without saying where it is coming from. It confirms the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and commits developed countries to a reduction in emissions of 80% by 2050 but does not determine reductions in the shorter term. Mitigation in developed countries will be measured, reported and verified according to guidelines yet to be determined by parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Naturally, the major environmental organizations have made it clear that they deplore the accord but, when it is recalled how far gone was any hope for agreement within a few days of the conference’s opening, it says something for the signatories that they stuck it out and concluded even this, the slightest of results, even if it is a mere fragment of what was expected and a molecule of what was hoped for. Despite the continued obliteration of previously agreed points as Friday night wore on, it appears that the signatory heads of government did rise to the occasion and attempt to break their deadlock, though China is being blamed for being disproportionately obdurate as regards international monitoring. However many heads of government effectively abandoned the talks by refusing to extend their visit to continue negotiations and left Denmark hours before the accord was concluded. Their departure, as well as the enormous gaps in detail which remain (sourcing funds, assigned emissions levels, monitoring, reporting), leave the accord looking very much like the notorious “leaked text” which emerged almost as soon as the conference began and which alienated the developing countries from the negotiations at that very early stage. An EU spokesman said at least the accord “keeps our goals and hopes alive,” but Yvo de Boer, the UN Climate Change head, made the telling observation that it remained to be seen which countries would support it. Unless most of them do, and reconvene to fill the gaps, the present signatories might keep their hopes and dreams alive but they would be doing this on their own, and it might be all they are doing about climate change until it is too late to do anything effective at all.
The UN Conference on Climate Change has begun! "110 heads of states and governments will ... attempt to seal a political global climate deal. If a deal is agreed, the UN will aim at transforming it into a legally binding text to replace the Kyoto Protocol as its regulations of emissions expires in 2012."
Monday December 7 2009:-
Oops; well, following the leaking of the white paper which appears to pre-empt the issue of emissions levels for developing countries, it is going to take something equally catastrophic to refocus the gathering on climate change and away from the bullying of developing countries by the "first world". If only the Antarctic ice shelf would collapse right now...
Tuesday December 8 2009:-
Copenhagen is now a five ring circus: (Ring 1) Having requested a collapse of the Antarctic ice shelf yesterday this is exactly what happened: an enormous iceberg is heading for Australia. (Ring 2) Sarah Palin has become aware of the "Hopenhagen" conference and has deftly pointed out that fiddling with emissions levels is an "economic catastrophe" (she's obviously unaware that CO2 is now officially "harmful to the public" in the USA). (Ring 3) The leaking of Denmark's pro-large economy white paper has now enabled Tuvalu to propose an alternative which is for some reason supported by the G77 but which remains disadvantageous to them. (Ring 4) The 'leaked' paper has been revised and now expressly supports Kyoto with a 12 month deadline for a replacement (i.e. do nothing). (Ring 5) In the meantime scientists at the conference have felt the need to issue joint statements with inter-faith groups reassuring the evangelical right wing that climate change is not fiddlin' with Gawd's Wrath. Hallelujah
Today’s daily roundup seemed uneventful. Perhaps people took a long lunch after the break to watch warrior Obama spend a few tons of emissions to accept the Peace Prize. But while the NGOs watched Princess Mary narrate a sustainable fashion parade and/or stripped to their underwear (presumably to show how warm it has become) the bosses had a few quiet words to the press. Ban Ki - moon made it clear that he expected a consensual outcome (i.e. he’d had enough of these leaks and would be banging heads) and Yvo de Boer (executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in case you didn’t know) said all he wanted was agreement on: (1) how much developed countries would reduce emissions, (2) how much developing countries would limit development, (3) who is going to pay for it all and (4) how the money was going to be managed. At least they might as well reduce the scope before the heads of government arrive next week.
Thursday December 10 2009:-
OK, so now we have an official draft agreement courtesy of the UN climate bureaucrats which would cut emissions by 50% by 2050 but don’t get excited because (a) it is one of those documents like a D.I.Y. divorce paper where it all depends on what is put in the gaps by all parties concerned; (b) at present those parties do not include the USA, China or India so it’s like children trying to get their parents divorced against their will (c) the chief G77 negotiator walked out of the meetings saying “things are not going well.” So much for that. The good news is that after the po-faced UN head of climate change Yvo de Boer said that any Copenhagen agreement has to be all about money, the European union hob nobbed and quickly came up with 30b Euros over two years (this is a third of the total estimated requirement) as if they had already thought it through. On the other hand, the African Union negotiator (Meles Zenawi) folded his arms and said the outcome of the entire conference depends on what the major economies pay for and the Americans and the Chinese said they aren’t paying for anything and engaged in an hilarious “I know you are so what am I?” exchange about each other. One wonders what Sarah Palin is so worried about. As Hopenhagen turns to Hopenhell her bit will be biting into Greenland’s sub-tropical tundra in no time at all. Maybe this is what the Danes wanted all along. They’re so clever.
Friday December 11 2009:-
Today’s summary was accidentally deleted!
Saturday December 12 2009:-
With the unofficial (non combatant) delegates and eco-tourists working themselves into a frenzy on the cobblestones of Copenhagen this weekend Connie Hedegaard, the Conference President called a press conference to state that “we have made considerable progress over the course of the first week” which in context is one of those comments like “you do not look fat.” The press corps (not being sure what this meant) probed and were informed that the progress to which she referred concerned previously unnoticed discussions on wind and solar power and the expansion of forests, but Madame President clearly avoided claiming progress on the subject of who is going to pay for caps on emissions. The gap-filled circulating white paper keeps circulating but the African Union is doing its bit to define the issues. They want the industrialised nations to pay 5% of GDP. This would require the USA to come up with $780 billion over two years (compared to the EU’s 33b Euros), so as the African Union said yesterday, “things are not going well.” Obama, having gone home from Norway to refuel his enormous plane, flies back to Denmark next week with many of his co-heads of government. They must be wondering what they are going to do when they get there. Say yes to 5% of GDP? Say no? Suggest another draft text? Their way will have been prepared by no less than the Archbishop of Canterbury (no stranger to schism) who will preach tomorrow to Queen Margarethe and her family on the topic of loving the environment. Maybe divine enlightenment will ensue. Maybe it won’t. As delegates are no doubt united in anticipation of the conference’s end, it’s beginning to hardly matter.
Sunday December 13 2009:-
Despite the Conference’s day of rest today 200 unofficial conference delegates sang their eco-protest-songs in the Scandinavian slammer while the official delegates brewed enough trouble to keep them going for the rest of the week. The Archbishop of Canterbury said in church this morning that the conference outcomes were being put at risk by "fear and selfishness," and you don't need to be a Ugandan Bishop to realise he probably got that right. The ubiquitous Meles Zenawi (leader of the African delegations), who has cast a spell of doom on the conference’s outcome every day since it began, proved his consistency by announcing today that he would sink any agreement if it did not sufficiently account for African financial needs (remember they want a mere 5% of GDP), and then revealed that he had China and India on side to give his threat meaning. In the meantime the draft text fiasco continued when the original (mostly white) G8 countries went off to further negotiations at a secret dinner to which no-one else (i.e. China, India, Mexico, Brazil or South Africa) was invited, thereby adding insult to injury. An optimist might say they were trying to exert pressure on the USA to show some leadership, but if so they failed. Back at the ranch, Conference President Connie Hedegard (who said yesterday that great progress had been made without iterating any examples) said not enough progress had been made and that everyone had to hurry up. Actually, quite a few people said this including Tony Blair (but it’s not clear why he said it or two whom; it’s possible that he’s giving press conferences to himself). Almost everyone who spoke to a reporter today revelled in the fact that there’s no text for the heads for government to sign when they arrive this week but no one knows what to do about it. In any case Connie can’t hurry up anything. What with secret dinners for the rich, and threats by the poor to tear up an agreement that doesn’t even exist, while the developing giants of India and China make mischief in the peanut gallery, it’s fairly safe to say by now that China, India and the African states came to Copenhagen with about as much good faith as the USA, and that is saying something.
Gordon Brown decided that he would arrive before all the other heads of government so as to prove himself in Copenhagen the leader he has signally failed to be at home. Or so he thought a few months ago when his program was arranged. Now he’s simply going to be first on the scene of the Climate Change train wreck. Not being renowned for his “people skills,” it’s unlikely that his presence is going to be an effective triage. “Train wreck” is no empty metaphor; this is precisely how the conference was described by no less than Jairam Ramesh, India’s Minister for the Environment who helpfully pointed out that only two days remain before a text is needed for the HOGs to sign, and that no convergence of views is in sight. Ed Miliband (the UK Climate Minister and younger brother of Foreign Secretary and Hilary Clinton’s love interest, David Miliband) was equally blunt and told conference delegates to “get your act together.” The rest of Monday slumped into a miasma of sulks about Saturday night’s secret dinner to which no one was invited but those whom the Danes believed to be worth cultivating (i.e. none of the developing or poor countries). Five whole hours of negotiating time were lost on account of this invitation list. In these circumstances Vice President Al Gore’s charismatic and crowd pleasing appearance could not fulfil its function as a curtain raiser to a freshly drafted global agreement. By now a draft agreement should have been almost ready for Gordon Brown to pass off as his own work. Instead, Gore’s irrefutable evidence of global warming simply highlighted the absence of a draft text and showed how little notice has been taken by governments of the fundamental point of this conference: that it is time for global regulations to effect climate change.
Tuesday December 15 2009:-
The second phase of the conference began today with the arrival of the first of what will become a torrent of celebrities seeking to “expand the brand” by aligning themselves with what they thought was going to be a successful example of populist political change. Instead, “Hopenhagen” has turned out to be an humiliating spectacle of bitter public enmity unseen since the spoils were divided at the end of both World Wars. Gordon Brown arrived as promised, huffing and puffing, and has not been seen since, presumably because he’s too terrified to come out of his hotel room and face the Africans. Prince Charles arrived as well (separate plane) and gave the keynote address to the second phase of the talks in which he steered clear of schism and pronounced all delegates “profoundly weary.” Schism claimed Al Gore when his own research scientist contradicted everything Gore said in his speech yesterday (there must be something in the water). Arnold Schwazenegger (not an obvious candidate for emissions martyr) urged delegates to “effect a global transformation,” a phrase which really has to be heard in his unique version of English, and Nick Griffin, leader of the British Fascists, made a quaint and rather touching misjudgement when he denounced the conference as a meeting of “mass murderers.” He believes emissions issues are the product of a vast left wing conspiracy, but if he was assuming that those he was accusing of murder were trying to do something to prevent global warming he cannot have read the papers last week and seen how they were in effect doing exactly the opposite. It isn’t easy for a neo - Fascist to find that he really is expressing the opinion of the silent majority. It makes them feel a little too conspicuous. But as it was, the loony Right Wing has paved the way for the next three days when the world’s leaders will arrive to find that there is nothing for them to do but state the obvious (like Prince Charles), claim to be rescuing victory from the jaws of defeat (like Gordon Brown), make wild and crazy statements (like Nick Griffin) and undergo long photo ops with the clueless celebrities who thought that they could ride the climate gravy train without the entire world observing the carbon guzzling engines which are pulling it.
Wednesday December 16 2009:-
When Connie Hedegaard resigned as conference president today and was replaced by the Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen no one seemed to notice, so irrelevant has leadership and process management become in the melange of self interest playing out its rage against climate change in Copenhagen. Apart from the Danish police who have succeeded in acquiring an unexpected reputation for brutality, no one achieved anything inside the conference venue, where observer delegates were shut out of the venue after the talks broke down completely for the second time in 72 hours and the third time since the talks began. It seems that negotiators could not negotiate until they had defined what it was they were supposed to discuss given the extent of their conflict and the absence of any text which could form the basis of an agreement. Gordon Brown abdicated as global patriarch more or less as soon as he had crowned himself and said the conference was heading for “deadlock.” David Miliband (Ed’s big brother) said it was heading for farce, as if it hasn’t been a farce for days already, and Yvo de Boer, the UN head of climate change, compared it to a cable car stalled over a ravine. But, he said, the ride would be faster when the car began to move again (quite right: gravity can be compelling when you move away from the edge of a ravine). Ban-ki Moon has distanced himself from the conference and kept a low profile since last Friday when he warned delegates to stop wasting time and get on with a draft agreement. So it’s more a relief than a shock to hear that delegates today are openly discussing reconvening in Mexico next summer. No one is even suggesting any more that there will be any significant outcome on Friday. Obama might as well stay at home.
We all knew that when the top brass arrived in Copenhagen they were going to have to save face, tread water or whatever seeing as there is no agreement to talk about, or more specifically nothing written down in five pages or less for them to sign. So President Sarkozy et al have done the expected and whacked those feckless delegates over the head and told them they have failed to fulfill their historic destiny by bickering and being uncooperative. But something a bit odder is going on. It began yesterday when John Kerry in his usual electrifying manner stated that the US would pass significant CO2 legislation only if the conference would agree on what that legislation ought to say. Well, this was strange considering that the USA has shown no interest in meaningful C02 legislation, or what the nonexistent draft text ought to say, or in showing leadership at the conference itself. And in any case the last thing a senator from Massachusetts is going to be able to do is predict what congress will do, at any time in the future, and the very, very last thing the US Congress will do is follow the recommendation of a gang of foreigners. Kyoto made that point quite clearly. So Kerry was being specious, as usual; but it is impossible to find words to describe Secretary of State Hilary Clinton who arrived today and told the conference the USA would provide $100b per year by 2020. Well, this is a lot. It's almost (but not quite) enough to make the Africans overlook the Egg Foo Yong they missed out on last Saturday night when the sacked conference president left them off her dinner invitation list. But hang on; there's a catch. This money would be provided (courtesy of the Bank of China one assumes), ONLY IF the conference agreed on an acceptable draft text within 24 hours. Call me old fashioned, but isn’t this a bit of an obvious abrogation of responsibility? If there is anything going on at the conference it is a massive leadership vacuum into which pour 200 of the world’s, um, leaders. And what do they say? “I cannot lead in a leadership vacuum. You lot can’t make the decisions but I can, and because you can’t, I won’t.” It’s very strange indeed. Has anyone thought about leading by example? Or making a commitment that is not contingent on a flock of pigs flying to hell at the precise moment that it freezes over.
Friday December 19 2009:-
At midnight on Friday (Denmark time) the USA, China, South Africa and India agreed to an “accord” which sets 2 degrees C as an average temperature increase, proposes a review in 2016, contributes $USD 30b to developing countries for 2010-2012 and promises $USD100b a year by 2020 without saying where it is coming from. It confirms the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and commits developed countries to a reduction in emissions of 80% by 2050 but does not determine reductions in the shorter term. Mitigation in developed countries will be measured, reported and verified according to guidelines yet to be determined by parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Naturally, the major environmental organizations have made it clear that they deplore the accord but, when it is recalled how far gone was any hope for agreement within a few days of the conference’s opening, it says something for the signatories that they stuck it out and concluded even this, the slightest of results, even if it is a mere fragment of what was expected and a molecule of what was hoped for. Despite the continued obliteration of previously agreed points as Friday night wore on, it appears that the signatory heads of government did rise to the occasion and attempt to break their deadlock, though China is being blamed for being disproportionately obdurate as regards international monitoring. However many heads of government effectively abandoned the talks by refusing to extend their visit to continue negotiations and left Denmark hours before the accord was concluded. Their departure, as well as the enormous gaps in detail which remain (sourcing funds, assigned emissions levels, monitoring, reporting), leave the accord looking very much like the notorious “leaked text” which emerged almost as soon as the conference began and which alienated the developing countries from the negotiations at that very early stage. An EU spokesman said at least the accord “keeps our goals and hopes alive,” but Yvo de Boer, the UN Climate Change head, made the telling observation that it remained to be seen which countries would support it. Unless most of them do, and reconvene to fill the gaps, the present signatories might keep their hopes and dreams alive but they would be doing this on their own, and it might be all they are doing about climate change until it is too late to do anything effective at all.
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